Who will be PML-N’s candidate for the coveted slot in 2018 is the million-dollar question. Hamza Shahbaz Sharif? Chaudhry Nisar? Even Maryam Nawaz Sharif now? Any clue?
For a moment, let’s assume (quite safely now) that there shall be no martial laws coming our way (ever). Also that Nawaz Sharif, to use Ayaz Amir’s terminology, would not prove to be his own suicide bomber unlike his past misadventures. Let’s assume also that men in uniform shall be satiated by the National Security Adviser slot. So halfway through the tenure of the current government comfortably saddled in place, as we head towards the next general elections in 2018, let’s ponder a little over the question of who is likely to become the next Prime Minister as things stand today. Let’s break it down party-wise.
From Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf’s side, it is not clear if it is going to make its way into other provinces than the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, since the two phases of Local Government elections in Punjab and Sindh have shown no encouraging signs. However, what is clear as crystal is that the candidate from its side shall be none other than Imran Khan, the party chief himself.
In the coming years, we may see the Arain and Rajput, Sindi and Punjabi and Ajalf pieces increase significantly as Maryam Nawaz, Shebaz Sharif, Asif Ali Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto may rise to power once Nawaz Sharif is done scamming the country. If they don’t become PM they have a chance at being President and someone close to the family within the PPP or PML-N may be the PM.
Many claim that Pakistan is the sucessor of the Mughal Empire, ideologically that may be true, politically that is false. We haven't seen one Hindustani (Urdu-Speaker) take power as PM, but we have seen Urdu-Speaker Presidents, similarly there aren’t any Mughals or Pathans in the upper echelons of the government at this point. Even when Bangladesh was a part of Pakistan our Bengali PMs had mostly feudal origins.
In overall, Pakistan’s leadership has resembled Ajlafi Feudal Punjab and Sindh of the 18th-19th centuries with a few interruptions by the Urdu-Speaking Ashrafi Elite. This is no different that India’s Brahmin dominated dynastic leadership, however we’ve seen a shift as the BJP strengthens it’s grip on India. Pakistan’s former territory, Bangladesh also has a heavily dynastic politcal history with 2 of the 3 witches of Bengal (Sheikh Hasina and Begum Khaleda Zia, the third is everyone’s favorite Didi) constantly grabbing power from one another.
Conclusion:
Pakistan has a very bleak future, we may see some development but terrorism and bickering with India is something that is likely to continue for as long as the Bhuttos and Sharifs hold the reins of Pakistan.
Pakistanis have never voted for the same party more than twice, I’m expecting to see the Bhutto Family win in 2018. Zardari returned to Pakistan on December 26th, 2016 after an 18 month “self-imposed exile”, I think he’s back to train Bilawal and teach him some proper Urdu, as Bilawal might be the next PM.
At first I thought that Shebaz would become PM easily, but know that Zardari has returned I think Bilawal may become PM.
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